Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology: November 2019

Friday, November 29, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 28 November 2019)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in northern and eastern regions of the island during 25 Nov - 2 Dec

• Between 20 - 25 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Ampara districts on the 25^th.

• From 19 - 25 Nov: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

• 1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

20^thNovember

Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts.

21^stNovember

Up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara and Ampara districts.

22^nd November

Up to 70 mm in Kalutara district; up to 60 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Galle district; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Mannar, Gampaha,Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.

23^rd November

Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy Puttalam and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

24^th November

Up to 70 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Monaragla and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Matara and Trincomalee districts.

25^th November

Up to 120 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50-100 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 25-50 mm in Monaragala district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, and Kandy districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in the rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Date	Rainfall
20^thNovember	Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
21^stNovember	Up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara and Ampara districts.
22^nd November	Up to 70 mm in Kalutara district; up to 60 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Galle district; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Mannar, Gampaha,Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
23^rd November	Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy Puttalam and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
24^th November	Up to 70 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Monaragla and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Matara and Trincomalee districts.
25^th November	Up to 120 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 27^th Nov – 3^rd Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
From 4^th– 10^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle and Kegalle districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 27^th Nov 2^nd Dec: Total rainfall up to 200 mm is expected in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Hambantota districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 21 November 2019)

Highlights

The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in northern and eastern regions of the island during 20 – 25 Nov
Between 13 - 19 Nov: up to 70 mm of rainfall was recorded in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Gampaha and Colombo districts on the 18th.
From 12 - 18 Nov: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

13^thNovember

No Rainfall.

14^thNovember

Up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Batticaloa districts.

15^th November

Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.

16^th November

Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Hambantota, Ampara and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.

17^th November

Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Galle, Matara and Nuwara Eliya districts.

18^th November

Up to 70 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Gampaha, and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Kurunegala, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Batticaloa, and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Galle districts.

19^th November

Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Galle and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Ratnapura districts; up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and southern regions of Kurunegala district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kandy and Badulla districts; up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During October –Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in the rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Date	Rainfall
13^thNovember	No Rainfall.
14^thNovember	Up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Batticaloa districts.
15^th November	Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
16^th November	Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Hambantota, Ampara and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
17^th November	Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Galle, Matara and Nuwara Eliya districts.
18^th November	Up to 70 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Gampaha, and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Kurunegala, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Batticaloa, and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Galle districts.
19^th November	Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Galle and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 20^th – 26^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 125 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Puttalam, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Kegalle and Hambantota districts.
From 27^th Nov – 3^rd Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm Mannar district; and up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 20^th – 25^h Nov: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 75 mm in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. Oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 14 November 2019)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in central and

western regions of the island during 13 – 18 Nov.

• Between 5 - 11 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Matara district on the 9^th

• From 5 - 11 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

• 0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

5^thNovember

Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Badulla districts.

6^thNovember

No Rainfall.

7^thNovember

Up to 60 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.

8^th November

Up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.

9^th November

Up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo districts.

10^th November

Up to 70 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Gampaha, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

11^th November

Up to 50 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Galle, and Monaragla districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Galle and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Date	Rainfall
5^thNovember	Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Badulla districts.
6^thNovember	No Rainfall.
7^thNovember	Up to 60 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.
8^th November	Up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
9^th November	Up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo districts.
10^th November	Up to 70 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Gampaha, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
11^th November	Up to 50 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Galle, and Monaragla districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 13^th – 19^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 95 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75-85 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
From 20^th – 26^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 125-135 mm Kurunegala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ratnapura, Galle and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 13^th – 18^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter, and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 7 November 2019)

Highlights

The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala district during 6 – 11 Nov.
Between 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 210 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna district on the 1st.
From 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

29^thOctober

Up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Ampara and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Puttalam, Monaragala, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Kalutara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

30^thOctober

Up to 175 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 70 mm in Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya district; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Colombo districts.

31^stOctober

Up to 150 mm in Jaffna district; up to 60 mm in Mannar district; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.

1^st November

Up to 210 mm in Jaffna districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Mannar districts; and up to 20 mm Monaragala district.

2^nd November

Up to 100 mm in Gampaha district; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.

3^rd November

Up to 60 mm in Colombo and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kalutara and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratanapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

4^th November

Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 70-100 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Matara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; up to 50-75 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Ampra districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Date	Rainfall
29^thOctober	Up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Ampara and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Puttalam, Monaragala, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Kalutara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
30^thOctober	Up to 175 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 70 mm in Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya district; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Colombo districts.
31^stOctober	Up to 150 mm in Jaffna district; up to 60 mm in Mannar district; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
1^st November	Up to 210 mm in Jaffna districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Mannar districts; and up to 20 mm Monaragala district.
2^nd November	Up to 100 mm in Gampaha district; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.
3^rd November	Up to 60 mm in Colombo and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kalutara and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratanapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
4^th November	Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 6^th – 12^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 85 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 65-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, and Kalutara districts.
From 13^th – 19^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 115 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 85-95 mm Kegalle, Puttalam, Gampaha, and Kurunegala districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 6^th – 11^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, November 1, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 31 October 2019)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna district during 23 – 28 Oct

• Between 23 – 28 Oct: up to 100 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa district on the 28^th.

• From 22 – 28 Oct: up to 18 km/h, southeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

23^rdOctober

Up to 70 mm in Jaffna district; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

24^thOctober

Up to 60 mm in Galle district; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.

25^thOctober

Up to 30 mm in Mullaitivu district; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.

26^th October

Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla district; and up to 20 mm Trincomalee, Matale and Kandy districts.

27^th October

Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kuruegala, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm Gampaha district.

28^th October

Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota and Galle districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Badulla and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150-200 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 100-150 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota and Monaragala district; up to 50-100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara, Kandy, Matale, Mannar and eastern regions of Anuradhapura district. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam and western regions of Anuradhapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Colombo and Kegalle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During September –Above average rainfall conditions up to 450 mm were experienced by Gampaha district; up to 360 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 120 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 500 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 300 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Matale, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.

Date	Rainfall
23^rdOctober	Up to 70 mm in Jaffna district; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
24^thOctober	Up to 60 mm in Galle district; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.
25^thOctober	Up to 30 mm in Mullaitivu district; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
26^th October	Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla district; and up to 20 mm Trincomalee, Matale and Kandy districts.
27^th October	Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kuruegala, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm Gampaha district.
28^th October	Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota and Galle districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Badulla and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 30^th Oct – 5^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 115 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 85-95 mm in Mannar, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale and Ratnapura districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
From 6^th – 12^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 105 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, and Matara districts; up to 85-95 mm Gampaha, Kegalle, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 30^th Oct – 4^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Badulla district; up to 100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, and Monaragala districts; up to 75 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa and Jaffna districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall suppress in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.