Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (28 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces from 29th Jan – 1st Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Western province with max of 58.6 mm in Colombo district on 24th Jan but it was dry on other days and other places.

 • From 18th Jan - 25th Jan, up to 35 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 26^th January – 1^st February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - Northern
• 45 mm - North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - North Western
•  5 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

From 2^nd – 8^th February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - Northern
• 35 mm - North Central, Uva
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be neutral during 29^th – 30^th January. MJO shall be active during 31^st January – 9^th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 19, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Eastern and North Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

 During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C above neutral in some parts of the Southern and Western provinces and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^th January – 1^st February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Northern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 29^th January – 4^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be neutral during 29^th – 30^th January. MJO shall be active during 31^st January – 9^th February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 22nd Jan – 25th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Northern province with max of 143.3 mm in Jaffna district on 17th Jan.

 • From 11th Jan - 18th Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 19^th – 25^th  January:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Northern
•  5 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

From 26^th January – 1^st February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - North Central, Northern, Uva
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 22^nd – 28^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22^nd – 23^rd January and to the entire island from 24^th - 28^th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9^th January – 2^nd February to the entire island. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 12, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Northern. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C above neutral in some parts of Sabaragamuwa district and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd January – 25^th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 22^nd January – 29^th January. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active during 22^nd – 28^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22^nd – 23^rd January and to the entire island from 24^th - 28^th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9^th January – 2^nd February to the entire island. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 January 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 15th Jan – 18th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.

 • From 3rd Jan - 10th Jan, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 12^th – 18^th  January:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 95 mm - Eastern
• 75 mm - North Central 
• 65 mm - Uva
• 45 mm - Central, Northern 
• 35 mm - Southern
• 25 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa 
• 15 mm - Western

From 19^th – 25^th  January: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 105 mm - Eastern
•  75 mm - Uva
•  65 mm - North Central
•  35 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
•  25 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•  15 mm - Western, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 15^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 5, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the early-January. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above neutral in the southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (15^th January – 18^th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western province and slightly below normal in the Nuwara Eliya district during 15^th January – 22^nd January. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 15^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces from 8th Jan – 11th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.

 • From 28th Dec 2021 - 4th Jan 2022, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 11^th  January:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 115 mm - Eastern
• 105 mm - Uva
•  85 mm - North Central
•  75 mm - Southern
•  65 mm - Central, Northern, Sabaragamuwa
•  45 mm - North Western, Western

From 12^th – 18^th  January: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - Uva
• 45 mm - North Central
• 35 mm - Northern, Southern
• 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western 
• 15 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 8^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8^th – 14^th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15^th – 19^th January for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: December 29, 2021 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the late-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, a slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C - 3⁰C above neutral for some parts of Central, and Sabaragamuwa provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th January – 11^th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains normal during 8^th January – 15^th January for the entire island.

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 8^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8^th – 14^th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15^th – 19^th January for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.