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Friday, January 21, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 January 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 22nd Jan – 25th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.
 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Northern province with max of 143.3 mm in Jaffna district on 17th Jan.
 • From 11th Jan - 18th Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 19th – 25th  January 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - North Central, Uva
  • 25 mm - Northern
  •  5 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
From 26th January – 1st February
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - North Central, Northern, Uva
  • 15 mm - Central
  •  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 22nd – 28th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22nd – 23rd January and to the entire island from 24th - 28th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9th January – 2nd February to the entire island. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 12, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Northern. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C – 30C above neutral in some parts of Sabaragamuwa district and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (22nd January – 25th January) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 22nd January – 29th January
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active during 22nd – 28th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22nd – 23rd January and to the entire island from 24th - 28th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9th January – 2nd February to the entire island. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

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