Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces from 8th Jan – 11th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.

 • From 28th Dec 2021 - 4th Jan 2022, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 11^th  January:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 115 mm - Eastern
• 105 mm - Uva
•  85 mm - North Central
•  75 mm - Southern
•  65 mm - Central, Northern, Sabaragamuwa
•  45 mm - North Western, Western

From 12^th – 18^th  January: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - Uva
• 45 mm - North Central
• 35 mm - Northern, Southern
• 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western 
• 15 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 8^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8^th – 14^th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15^th – 19^th January for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: December 29, 2021 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the late-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, a slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7-day SST anomaly.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C - 3⁰C above neutral for some parts of Central, and Sabaragamuwa provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th January – 11^th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains normal during 8^th January – 15^th January for the entire island.

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 8^th – 19^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8^th – 14^th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15^th – 19^th January for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.