Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted in Western province during 24th - 30th June. Also, from the 1st- 7th July for the same regions.

  •  Showers were experienced in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with a max of 58 mm in Ratnapura on 23rd June.

•  From 16th- 22nd June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 10 – 25 mm - Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badullla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
• 2 – 5 mm - Moneragala, Hambantota 

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Moneragala, Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24^th – 30^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm   - Southern, Northwestern
• 65 mm   - Central
• 35 mm   - Uva, North Central
• 25 mm   - Eastern

From 1^st – 7^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - Northwestern
• 85mm    - Central, Southern
• 45 mm   - Uva, North Central
• 25 mm   - Northern
• 15 mm   - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 23^rd- 27^th Jun; slightly enhance during 28^th Jun – 2^nd Jul and significantly enhance during 3^rd – 7^th Jul. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 16, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted in Sabaragamuwa province during 1st week. And extremely heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for Western &  Sabaragamuwa regions.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Central & Western provinces with a max of 144 mm in Ratnapura on 13th June.

•  From 9nth- 15th June: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.

•  0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
• 10 – 25 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Matale, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Moneragala
• 10 – 25 mm - Hambantota, Kurunegala, Martara, Ampara, Batticaloa, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st May:

• 12 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 10 mm - Puttalm, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm - Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
• 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 95 mm  - Western
• 85 mm  - Northwestern
• 65 mm  - Central, Southern
• 25 mm  - Uva 
• 15 mm  - North Central

From 24^th – 30^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Northwestern
• 95 mm  - Southern
• 85 mm  - Central
• 45 mm  - Uva
• 25 mm  - North Central
• 15 mm  - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th- 30^th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 9, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

0.5⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted for North-Western province during 1st week period. And dangerously heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for the same region.

  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Northwestern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 346 mm in Dummalasooriy on 3rd June.

•  From 2nd - 8th June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced.

•  SST was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of SL and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
• 100 – 150 mm - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura
• 75 – 100 mm   - Nuwara Eliya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Badulla 
• 50 – 75 mm     - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Moneragala, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm     - Batticaloa
  

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
• 50 – 100 mm   - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, 
• 25 – 50 mm     - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Moneragala, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th May:

• 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara
•  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
•  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
•  4 mm  - Mannar

21^st – 31^st May:

• 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
•  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
•  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10^th – 16^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm   - North western, Central
• 55 mm   - Southern
• 25 mm   - Uva

From 10^th – 16^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 125 mm - North western
• 105 mm - Southern, Central
• 55 mm   - Uva
• 25 mm   - North Central, Eastern, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th– 18^th June and neutral during 19^th–23^rd June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall of 145 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 3rd – 9th June.  

  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces with a max of  327 mm in Kalutara on 3rd June.

•  From 19th  - 25th May: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced. 

•  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.

Download full report ↓

---

Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar
• 5 – 10 mm - Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th May:

• 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara
•  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
•  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
•  4 mm  - Mannar

11^th – 20^th May:

• 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
• 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
•  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
•  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3^rd – 9^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Southern, North western
• 105 mm - Central
•  75 mm  - Uva
•  65 mm  - North central
•  55 mm  - Eastern
•  45 mm  - Northern

From 10^th – 16^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - North Western
•  95 mm  - Southern
•  55 mm  - Central, Uva
•  35 mm  - North Central, Eastern
•  25 mm  - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 4th–11th June and neutral during 12th– 16th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.