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Friday, June 4, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall of 145 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 3rd – 9th June.  
  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces with a max of  327 mm in Kalutara on 3rd June.
  From 19th  - 25th May: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced. 
  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar
  • 5 – 10 mm - Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy
  • 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


11th – 20th May:
  • 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara
  •  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
  •  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
  •  4 mm  - Mannar

11th – 20th May:
  • 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
  •  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
  •  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3rd – 9th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - Southern, North western
  • 105 mm - Central
  •  75 mm  - Uva
  •  65 mm  - North central
  •  55 mm  - Eastern
  •  45 mm  - Northern
From 10th – 16th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 105 mm - North Western
  •  95 mm  - Southern
  •  55 mm  - Central, Uva
  •  35 mm  - North Central, Eastern
  •  25 mm  - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 4th–11th June and neutral during 12th– 16th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.

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