Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 26 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 25- 30 Dec.

• Between 17-23 Dec: up to 160 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ampara district on the 19th

• From 17-23 Dec: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

• 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
17th December	Up to 60 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Monaragala, and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts.
18th December	Up to 70 mm in Monaragala district; up to 60 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kegalle and Kandy district.
19th December	Up to 160 mm in Ampara district; up to 140 mm in Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; up to 70 mm in Colombo, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Puttalam, Badulla, Monaragala, and Hambantota districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; 50 mm in Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee and Gampaha districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu district.
20th December	Up to 70 mm in Matale and Ampara districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Hambantota districts; 30 mm in Puttalam district; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts.
21st December	Up to 30 mm in Batticaloa district; and up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
22nd December	Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts; up to 60 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts; 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
23rd December	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 150-200 mm in Matale and Monaragala districts; and up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, and Hambantota. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, and Ampara districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; up to 50-100 mm in Batticaloa, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee district; up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura district and northern regions of Puttalam district; and up to 10-25 mm in Mannar district.

Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 25^th – 31^st Dec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 45-55 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Anuradhapura district.
From 1^st – 7^th Jan: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 25^th – 30^th Dec: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 19, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 19 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

•    The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 17- 22 Dec

•     Between 11-16 Dec: up to 60 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts on the 13^th.

•     From 10-16 Dec: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•     0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
11th December	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts.
12th December	Up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna. Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Galle districts.
13th December	Up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
14th December	Up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in the rest of the island.
15th December	Up to 10 mm in Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
16th December	Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Monaragala district; and up to 20 mm in Badulla district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island. Below-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50-100 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 25-50 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 18^th – 24^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts.
From 25^th – 31^st Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 17^th – 22^nd Dec: Total rainfall up to 200 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 150 mm Trincomalee, Monaragala, and Hambantota districts; up to 100 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall suppress in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 12, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 12 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in northern and south-western regons of the island during 11- 16 Dec.

·         Between 4-10 Dec: up to 160 mm of rainfall was recorded in Trincomalee district on the 9th.

·         From 3-9 Dec: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
4th December	Up to 120 mm in Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam district; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kurunegala, Colombo, Ampara, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Matale and Kandy districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.
5th   December	Up to 120 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 100 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 70 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; up to 60 mm in Puttalam and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts.
6th  December	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts.
7th  December	Up to 10 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantotoa districts.
8th December	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
9th December	Up to 160 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 70 mm in Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Matale and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Badulla district.
10th December	Up to 70 mm in Colombo and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Kalutara and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Puttalam, Gampaha and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Vavuniya districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 150-200 mm in Mannar, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; and up to 100-150 mm in Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Above average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 100-200 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 11^th – 17^th  Dec:  Total rainfall up to 125 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 105-115 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Galle, and Matara districts; and up to 95-105 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.
From 18^th – 24^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Vavuniya districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Matale districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 11^th – 16^th Dec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Jaffna, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: November 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 5 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 220 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 4- 9 Dec

•          Between 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 180 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Kurunegala districts on the 30^th.

•          From 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•          1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
26th November	Up to 30 mm in Colombo district; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts.
27th   November	Up to 50 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts.
28th November	Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Galle and Colombo districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
29th November	Up to 100 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 30 mm in rest of the island.
30th November	Up to 180 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 160 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts; up to 100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 70 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.
1st December	Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.
2nd December	Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 200-300 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 150-200 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Matale, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 100-200 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 4^th – 10^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Puttalam district.
From 11^th – 17^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4^th – 9^th Dec: Total rainfall up to 220 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: November 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.