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Friday, March 13, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 12 March 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 9 - 14 Mar.
  • Between 4 - 9 Mar: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Ratnapura district on the 9th.
  • From 3 - 9 Mar: up to 10 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
4th March
No Rainfall.
5th  March
Up to 30 mm Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
6th March
Up to 20 mm Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island.
7th March
Up to 10 mm Puttalam,Mannar, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.
8th March
No Rainfall.
9th March
Up to 50 mm Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, and Puttalam districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly MonitoringDuring February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle and Kalutara districts.

 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 11th – 17th Mar: Up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island.
From 18th – 24th Mar: No Rainfall.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4th – 9th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 5 March 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 4 - 9 Mar
          Between 25 Feb - 3 Mar: dry weather conditions were observed throughout the island.
          From 25 Feb - 2 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
          0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
26th February
No Rainfall.
27th   February
No Rainfall.
28th February
Up to 5 mm Galle and Matara districtst.
29th February
No Rainfall.
1st March
No Rainfall.
2nd March
Up to 5 mm in Monaragala district.
3rd March
Up to 5 mm in Monaragala and Badulla districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Mullaitivu districts. Below-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts.

Monthly MonitoringDuring February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, and Kalutara districts.


 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 4th – 10th Mar: No Rainfall.
From 11th – 17th Mar: No Rainfall.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4th – 9th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall not have an impact in the following 10 days.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, February 28, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 27 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 26 Feb - 2 Mar.
·         Between 19 - 25 Feb: up to 140 mm of rainfall was recorded in Mannar district on the 22nd.
·         From 18 - 24 Feb: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
19th February
No Rainfall.
20th   February
Up to 70 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Trincomalee and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in Kandy district.
21st February
Up to 50 mm Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Kandy, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa districts.
22nd February
Up to 140 mm in Mannar district; and up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
23rd February
Up to 10 mm in Monaragala district.
24th February
No Rainfall.
25th February
No Rainfall.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Badulla and Anuradhapura districts; up to 25-0 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Monaragala Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Mannar district; and up to 25-50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Kurunegala district; and up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts.

Monthly MonitoringDuring January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.


 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 26th Feb - 3rd Mar: No Rainfall.
From 4th – 10th Mar: No Rainfall.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19th – 24th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall enhance in the following 5 days.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 20 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 19 - 24 Feb.
·         Between 11 - 16 Feb: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle district on the 15th
·         From 11 - 17 Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
·         0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
11th February
Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.
12th   February
Up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Colombo districts and up to 20 mm in Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
13th February
Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
14th February
No Rainfall.
15th February
Up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
16th February
No Rainfall.
17th February
No Rainfall.
18th February
No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ampara district; and up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

Monthly MonitoringDuring January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.


 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 19th – 25th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 35-45 mm in Hambantota, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Puttalam, Gampaha and Matara districts.
From 26th Feb - 3rd Mar: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Colombo,Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15-25 mm in most parts of the island.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19th – 24th Feb: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 13, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during early February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor near-borderline El Niño SST conditions during late winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, stating that overall conditions are neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Friday, February 14, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 13 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in the southern half of the island during 12 - 18 Feb.
  Between 4 - 10 Feb: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 5th.
  From 4 - 10Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date
Rainfall
4th February
Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
5th   February
Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts and up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Kegalle, Monaragala and Hambantota districts .
6th February
No Rainfall.
7th February
No Rainfall.
8th February
No Rainfall.
9th February
No Rainfall.
10th February
No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Hambantota, Ampara and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly MonitoringDuring January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, and Kegalle districts.


 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 12th – 18th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
From 19th – 25th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Matale and Anuradhapura districts.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 13th – 18th Feb: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.