Climate Bulletin Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Southern during 30th Apr - 4th May and 95 mm expected in Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces during 5th- 11th May

  •   Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 160 mm in Ratnapura on 22ndApr.

•   From 20th - 26th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeastly winds were experienced by Northern half of the island.

•   Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gamapaha, Galle, Matara
• 50 – 75 mm - Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Batticaloa

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara
• 25 – 50 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo
• 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Matara

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Tricomalee, Ampara, Matale, Hambantota
• 10 – 25 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th April:

• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
• 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11^th – 20^th April:

• 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
• 8 mm - Mannar
• 6 mm - Kilinochchi
• 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 30^th April– 4^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Western, Southern
• 65 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Uva
• 45 mm - Eastern, North Central, North Western
• 35 mm - Northern

From 5^th – 11^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Central, Uva
• 65 mm - North Western
• 55 mm - North Central, Eastern
• 45 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 30th April – 1st May, slightly enhanced during 2nd–11th May

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 21, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in late April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.