Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 March 2021)

 

              Highlights                             

•  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern and Southern province during 13th - 16th Mar. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Central & Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 108 mm max in Kandy on 6th Mar.

•  From 2th  - 8th March: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  SST was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the North-West Indian Ocean.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 300 – 500 mm -Kegalle, Gampaha
• 200 – 300 mm -Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle 
• 150 – 200 mm -Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm -Puttalam, Hambanthota
• 50 – 75 mm -Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm -Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Ampara
• 5 – 10 mm -Batticaloa
• 2 – 5 mm         -Jaffna, Trincomalee
  

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm -Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 100 – 200 mm -Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambanthota, Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm -Anuradhapura, Puttalam   
• 25 – 50 mm -Polonnaruwa, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm -Mannar, Ampara

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm -Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa 

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th February:

• 6 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar
• 4 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 2 mm - Jaffana, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm -Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13th – 16th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm -Southern, Eastern
• 45 mm -Western, Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm -North Central, North Western
• 15 mm -Northern

From 17th – 23rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm -Eastern
• 35 mm -Western, Southern, Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm -Northern, North Central, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall Neutral the rainfall during 9^th – 13^rd Mar, slightly Enhanced during 8^th– 17^th Mar and Neutral again during 19^th – 23^rd Mar.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 3, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in early March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the North-West Indian Ocean.