Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

• Showers of 65 mm expected in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva & Southern provinces during 20^th-24^th March.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 10^th - 16^th March.

•  From 9^th - 15^th March: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•   SST was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern & some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 50 – 75 mm - Galle
• 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matara, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm - Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Badulla
• 5 – 10 mm - Mullaitivu
• 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Colombo
• 50 – 100 mm - Gampaha, Kalutara
• 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Ampara, Hambanthota, Moneragala, Puttalam, Mannar

Rainfall Deficit

• 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala
• 25 – 50 mm - Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Badulla
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th March:

• 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
• 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 14 mm - Matara
• 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
• 10 mm - Puttalam
• 8 mm - Matale
• 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
• 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 65 mm - Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
• 55 mm - Central, Western
• 35 mm - North central, North western
• 25 mm - Northern

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Eastern, Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
• 55 mm - North central
• 45 mm - Northern, North western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral the rainfall during 16^th – 20^th March and significantly enhanced during 21^st– 30^th March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 10, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.