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Friday, June 3, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (3 June 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy  rainfall above 100 mm is expected  in Sabaragamuwa, Western and Southern  provinces during 3rd - 7th June with the risk of floods and landslides continues for these provinces and adjacent areas.
 • Last week, floods affected twelve thousands with one fatality - O/L exams was scheduled in the peak stormy months with problems in the SW that were not foreseen but should have been
 • From 23rd - 29th May, up to 15 m/s of gale-force south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be below average of 0.5°C to the west of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 1st – 7th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Western, Southern
  • 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  75 mm  - North Western
  •  65 mm  - Central, Uva
  •  35 mm  - North Central, Eastern
From 8th – 14th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 105 mm - Southern, Western
  •  95 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  65 mm - Central, North Western
  •  45 mm - Uva 
  •  35 mm - North Central
  •  15 mm - Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 3rd - 10th June; and near neutral during 10th – 14th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 25, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-May. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be below average of 0.5°C to the west of the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Galle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (23rd - 30th May) = 7.0 mm
Rmax: 105.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

2.9 mm

Eastern

0.6 mm

Western

16.8 mm

Southern Plains

2.8 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 14.4 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 108 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near-normal for the entire island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (3rd - 7th June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Southern, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 3rd - 11th June
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 3rd - 10th June; and near neutral during 10th – 14th June.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the north province.

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