Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 June 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Very High rainfall (>100mm) is predicted in total for Ratnapura; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.8 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 10.8 mm on average.

 • From 30th May - 5th June, up to 15 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•  95 mm - Western
•  85 mm - Southern
•  45 mm - North-western
•  35 mm - Central, Uva
•  15 mm - North-central

From 15^th – 21^th June: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 125 mm - Western, Southern
•  75 mm - North Western
•  65 mm - Central
•  55 mm - Uva
•  45 mm - North Central
•  25 mm - Eastern, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8^th - 12^th June; near neutral during 13^th – 17^th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18^th – 22^nd June. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 1, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kegalle

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31^th May - 7^th June) = 2.8 mm

Rmax: 64.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.1 mm
Eastern	0.1 mm
Western	7.6 mm
Southern Plains	1.5 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 86 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Western, North central and North western, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th - 14^th June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Ratnapura district; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Uva and Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 8^th - 16^th June. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8^th - 12^th June; near neutral during 13^th – 17^th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18^th – 22^nd June. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the north province.