Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Very heavy rainfall is predicted in Western province during 9th-10th Jul; In Sabaragamuwa during 11th-14th Jul  & heavy showers in Sabaragamuwa province from 15th-21st Jul.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Western province with  max of 170 mm in Kalutara district on 1st July.

• From 30th  June- 6th July: up to  8 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island

• Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL warmer to the South and North.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 75 – 100 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Galle, Kegalle
• 50 –75 mm - Matara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Ampara, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa
• 25 – 50 mm - Hambantota, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 5 – 10 mm  - Trincomalee

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale 
• 25 – 50 mm  - Matara, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nueara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 10 – 25 mm  - Hambantota, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 105 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 95 mm  - Southern
• 75 mm  - North western
• 65 mm  - Central
• 55 mm  - Uva
• 35 mm  - North central, Eastern
• 25 mm  - Northern

From 15^th – 21^st July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Western, Southern
• 45 mm - Central
• 35 mm - North western, Uva
• 15 mm - Eastern, North central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 7^th - 11^th Jul; neutral during 12^th – 16^th Jul and slightly suppress during 17^th – 21^st Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 23, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL warmer to the South and North.