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Friday, July 23, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 July 2021)



  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Southern Sabaragamuwa, North central & Central provinces during 21st-27th July. 
  • Fairly heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Eastern province with max of 50.5 mm in Trincomalee district on 18th July.
  • From 13th- 19th July: up to  15 km/h from the southwesterly were experienced over the island. 
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.



Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 75 - 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Jaffna
  • 50 – 75 mm  - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 50 – 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna
  • 25 – 50 mm  - Gampaha, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalm, Vavuniya
  • 10 – 25 mm  - Colombo, Kalutara

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21st – 30th June:
  • 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
  • 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota

1st – 10th July:
  • 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
  • 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
  • 8 mm   - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
  • 6 mm   -Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
  • 4 mm   - Trincomalee
  • 2 mm   -Jaffna



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21th– 27th July: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - Western, Southern 
  • 55 mm - North central, Central
  • 45 mm - Uva, North western
  • 25 mm - Eastern
  • 15 mm - Northern
From 28th July – 3rd August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, North central, Southern
  • 35 mm - Central, North western
  • 25 mm - Uva
  • 15 mm - Northern, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 20th - 29th Jul; and significantly suppress during 30th Jul – 3rd Aug.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 14, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.

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