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Monday, May 11, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 26 March 2020)


  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 24 - 29 Mar.
  • Between 18 - 23 Mar: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in Colombo and Polonnaruwa districts on the 18th and 20th respectively.
  • From 17 - 23 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.



Weekly Monitoring:

18th March
Up to 20 mm in Colombo district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Ampara and Badulla districts.
19th   March
Up to 10 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 5 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Matara and Hambantota districts.
20th March
Up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Badulla districts.
21st March
Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
22nd March
Up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Kurunegala districts; and up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.
23rd March
No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Anuradhapura, PO, and Mataledistricts; up to 5-10 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Gampaha Galle, and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya Badulla and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly MonitoringDuring February – The above-average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of the Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, and Kalutara districts.



14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 25th – 31st Mar: No Rainfall.
From 1st – 7th Apr: No Rainfall.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 24th – 29th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days; shall not have an impact in the following 5 days and shall suppress in the next 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 19, 2020 
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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