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Monday, May 11, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 2 April 2020)


          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 1 - 6 Apr.
          Between 24 - 31 Mar: up to 70 mm of rainfalls were recoreded in Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts on the 30th.
          From 24 - 30 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island
          0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka



Weekly Monitoring:

24th March
Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
25th   March
Up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.
26th March
Up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
27th March
Up to 5 mm in Galle and Matara districts.
28th March
Up to 5 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts.
29th March
Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; up to 10 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, and Kandy districts.
30th March
Up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matara and Galle  districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, and Hambantota districts.
31st March
Up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Monaragala district; up to 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, and Matara districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts.

Monthly MonitoringDuring March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.



14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 1st – 7th Apr: No Rainfall.
From 8th – 15th Apr: No Rainfall.
IRI Model Forecast: 
From 1st – 6th Apr: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days; and shall suppress in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 19, 2020 
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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