Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 28, February 2019

Highlights:

•   The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm of total rainfall in central parts of the island during 27 Feb – 4 Mar.
•   Between 19 - 26 Feb: up to 70 mm of rainfall was recorded in Badulla district on the 26th.
•  From 19 – 25 Feb: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the southern half of the island.
•   0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On February 19th, Kalutara and Colombo districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts up to 5 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 20th. On the 21st, Batticaloa district received up to 15 mm of rainfall; and Ampara and Monaragala districts up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 22nd-25th. On the 26th, Badulla district received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Monaragala district up to 60 mm; Ratnapura district up to 50 mm; Kegalle, Hambantota and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Colombo, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Colombo and Kalutara districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Badulla district; up to 25-50 mm in Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kegalle and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Kurunegala district; up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Kalutara and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January - below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 150 mm rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 50 mm in for the most parts of the island. 

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 27th Feb – 5th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Mullaitivu districts.

From 6th – 12th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Colombo, Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

1st Mar: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Badulla, Monaragala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 80 mm in Matara district; up to 40 mm in Vavuniya, Matale and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts.

2nd Mar: Up to 20 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura district; and up to 10 mm in Galle district.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 27th Feb – 4th Mar: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 25 mm in rest of the island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 19, 2018

SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, now carrying an El Niño advisory, calls for a 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Feb-Apr, decreasing to 50% for Apr-Jun.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.