Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 14, February 2019

Highlights:

•   The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya during 13 – 18 Feb.
•   Between 5 - 12 Feb: up to 90 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 6th.
•  From 5 – 11 Feb: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
•   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On February 5th, Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu and Batticaloa districts up to 30 mm; Kilinochchi, Mannar and Galle districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 6th, Galle and Matara districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm and Gampaha and Kegalle districts up to 20 mm.  No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th. On the 8th, Kurunegala district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Gampaha and Kegalle districts up to 30 mm; and Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 9th, Kurunegala district received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Matale , Vavuniya and Badulla districts up to 50 mm; Ampara, Monaragala, and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 10th, Ratnapura district received up to 10 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during 11th and 12th.

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Monaragala and Vavuniya districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and western regions of Anuradhapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Matale and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Polonnaruwa and eastern regions of Anuradhapura districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January - below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 150 mm rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 50 mm in for the most parts of the island. 

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 13th – 19th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Galle, Matara and Ampara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts.

From 20th – 26th Feb: Tot Total rainfall up to 35 mm Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 15-25 mm in Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

15th Feb: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts; up to 40 mm in Polonnaruwa and Colombo districts; and up to 10 mm in Batticaloa, Monaragala, Badulla, Kegalle and Kalutara districts.

16th Feb: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 80 mm in Kurunegala and Colombo districts; up to 40 mm in Galle and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Matale, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 13th – 18th Feb: Total rainfall up to 100 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 75 mm in Matale, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Ampara; and up to 50 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2018

El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, but less strongly so. However, key atmospheric variables continued to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.