Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 July 2022)

     

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall  (25mm-50mm) is predicted for the Colombo, Kalutara Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 8th - 12th July.

 • During the last week, hydro catchment areas have received 14.5mm of rainfall on average. On July 2, nearly one-foot high waves flooded into the land along the Colombo-Matara main road due to rough seas.

 •  From 27th June - 3rd July, up to 15 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th July– 12^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

•  35 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
•  25 mm - Western, Eastern
•  15 mm - Northern
• <10 mm - Uva, Central, North-central, North-western

From 13^th July– 19^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 35 mm - Western
• 25 mm - Uva, Central, North-western, Eastern
• 15 mm - North-central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral during 6^th - 10^th July; and slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 20^th July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 29, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Norton

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28^th June - 5^th July) = 1.5 mm

Rmax: 31.1 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.0 mm
Eastern	1.3 mm
Western	3.2 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 14.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 162.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for southern half of the country and below normal for the north-central province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th - 12^thJuly) moderate rainfall is predicted for the Colombo, Kalutara Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 8^th – 13^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral during 6^th - 10^th July; and slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 20^th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.