Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 January 2021)

   

                        Highlights                             

•  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Batticaloa district during 27th Jan - 3rd Feb. The drop in rainfall over the rest of the country. 

  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Western & Southern provinces during 21th- 27th.Up to 91 mm Highest rainfall in Kalutara on 21st Jan.

•  From 20th  - 26th Jan: up to 6 km/h Easterly to Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 5 – 10 mm - Batticaloa
• 2 –  5 mm  - Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

11^th – 20^th January:

• 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 16 mm - Vavuniya
• 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
• 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28^th – 3^rd January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

135 mm - Eastern

  75 mm - Northern

  65 mm - North-central

  45 mm - Western, Uva, Central, Southern 

  35 mm - North-western, Sabaragamuwa

From 4^th – 10^thFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

125 mm - Eastern

 65 mm  - Northern

 55 mm  - North-central, Uva

 45 mm  - Central, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa

 25 mm  - North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall from 19^th Jan– 2^nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 20, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.