Highlights
• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 20 Monaragala district during 23rd -29th August.
• Between
16th - 22nd
August: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Moneragala district on
17th
August.
• From 16th- 22nd August: up to 10 km/h, northwesterly
winds were experienced by the entire island
• 1 0C above average sea surface
temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Rainfall
16th August
Up to 15 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts;
and up to 10 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kandy, Kegalle,
Kurunegala, Mannar, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Vavuniya
districts.
17th August
Up to 20 mm in Monaragala district; and up to 10
mm in Badulla district.
18th August
No
rainfall
19th August
up to 10 mm in Vavuniya district.
20th August
Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district.
21st August
Up to 2.5 mm in Moneragala district.
22nd August
Up to 5.0 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kaluthara,
Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura
districts.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week:
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Ampara,
Badulla, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 5-10 mm in
Colombo, Gampaha, Jaffna, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura
districts; and up to 2 – 5 mm in Anuradhapura,
Hambantota, Kilinochchi, and Mannar districts.
Below rainfall average up to 25 - 50 mm in Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla,
Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale,
Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura, Trincomalee and Vavuniya
districts and up to 10 – 25 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kurunegala,
Matara, Moneragala and Puttalam districts.
Monthly Monitoring:
During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 8
mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Vavuniya
districts; up to 6 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy,
Kilinochchi, Kurunegala, Mannar, Moneragala, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya,
Puttalam, Ratnapura, and Trincomalee districts; and up to 4 mm in Batticaloa,
Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle, and Matara districts.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date | Rainfall |
16th August | Up to 15 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 10 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Mannar, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Vavuniya districts. |
17th August | Up to 20 mm in Monaragala district; and up to 10 mm in Badulla district. |
18th August | No rainfall |
19th August | up to 10 mm in Vavuniya district. |
20th August | Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district. |
21st August | Up to 2.5 mm in Moneragala district. |
22nd August | Up to 5.0 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kaluthara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts. |
Predictions
Rainfall
NOAA NCEP models:
From 24th August– 30th
August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara,
Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 45 mm in Hambantota, Kandy, Kurunegala,
Matale, Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in Ampara,
Anuradhapura, Badulla, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25 mm in
Batticaloa district.
From 31st August– 06th
September: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura
districts; up to 75 mm in Colombo, Hambantota, Kegalle and Matara districts; up
to 55 mm in Badulla, Gampaha, Kandy, Moneragala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up
to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, and puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in
polonnaruwa district; up to 25 mm in Ampara district; and up to 15 mm in
Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, and Mannar districts.
IRI Model Forecast:
From 23rd August – 29th August: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Moneragala and Badulla
districts; and up to 50 mm in Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Matale and
Kandy districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 28th August – 6th September.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: August 12, 2020
SSTs in the east-central
and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in mid-august, and
the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La
Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the
borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly
weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat
similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of
ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La
Niña for fall and winter.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
No comments:
Post a Comment