Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 9 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 8- 13 Jan.
• Between 31 Dec 5 Jan: up to 100 mm of rainfall were recorded in Gamapa and Colombo districts on the 2^nd.
• From 31 Dec - 6 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
31st December	Up to 30 mm in Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Ratnapura district.
1st   January	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
2nd January	Up to 100 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Kandy districts; and up to 20 mm in Badulla and Matara districts.
3rd January	Up to 20 mm in Colombo district; and up to 10 mm in Gampaha and Kalutara  districts.
4st January	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha district.
5th January	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
6th January	Up to 50 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle and Matara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for northern regions of Ratnapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Kegalle districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and southern regions of Ratnapura district.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 8^th – 14^th Jan: Total rainfall more than 15 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in most parts of the island.
From 15^th – 21^st Jan: Total rainfall more than 15 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 8^th – 13^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 19, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.