Highlights
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall
in Badulla district during 10 – 15 Jul.
· Between 2 – 8 Jul: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala and
Gampaha districts on the 2nd.
Highlights
· Between 2 – 8 Jul: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala and
Gampaha districts on the 2nd.
· From 2 – 8 Jul: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the
entire island.
· 1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the
seas around Sri Lanka..Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
On July 2nd, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts received up to 10 mm
of rainfall; and Puttalam, Matale, Kegalle, Kandy, Colombo and Ratnapura
districts up to 5 mm. On the 3rd, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara
districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any
part of the island during the period 4th - 5th. On the 6th,
Mannar, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No
significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th.
On the 8th, Badulla and Monaragala district received up to 5 mm of
rainfall.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla and
Monaragala districts; and 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala,
Kandy, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is
shown for Badulla district; and up to 10-25 mm in Monaragala district. Below
average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Colombo district; and up to 10-25
mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura,
Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During May – Above average rainfall conditions
up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle
and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions
up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90
mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa,
Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The
CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in
Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150
mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla
and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala,
Matale and Kandy districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 10th
- 16th Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya,
Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura,
Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and
Ratnapura districts; and up to 5-15 mm in rest of the island.
From 17th – 23rd Jul: Total rainfall up
to 35 mm in Jaffna, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and
up to 15-25 mm Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee,
Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
12th
Jul: Not Available
13th
Jul: Not Available
From 10th
– 15th Jul: Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Badulla district;
up to 75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts;
and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala,
Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee
districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: June 19, 2019
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak
El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of
subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere
show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a
continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The
official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of
El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through
fall and winter.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above average sea surface
temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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