Highlights
- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara and Galle districts during 5 – 10 Jun.
- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara and Galle districts during 5 – 10 Jun.
- From 28 May – 3 Jun: up to 54 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 28th, Gampaha, Colombo,
Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls
were recorded in any part of the island on the 29th. On the 30th,
Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts received up to 20 mm of
rainfall. On the 31st, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts received up
to 20 mm of rainfall. On June 1st, Kilinochchi, Puttalam,
Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo,
Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the
2nd, Anuradhapura district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 3rd,
Kalutara and Matara districts received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Puttalam,
Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Badulla, Hambantota and Monaragala
districts up to 30 mm; and Kegalle, Kandy Nuwara Eliya, Kilinochchi and Jaffna
districts up to 20 mm. On the 4th, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and
Kurunegala districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Gampaha,
Ratnapura, Kegalle and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Vavuniya, Mullaitivu,
Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matale and Nuwara Eliya districts up to
20 mm.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Kalutara,
Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala,
Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla and
Monaragala districts; and 10-25 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura Polonnaruwa, Matale and
Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown
for Ampara and Badulla districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala,
Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Monaragala
districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During
May – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Nuwara
Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts;
and up to 180 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis
tool shows up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle
districts; up to 100 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla,
Monaragala and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara
Eliya, Ampara and Hambantota districts; and up to 50 mm in Vavuniya,
Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Kandy districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
NOAA NCEP models:
From 5th
– 11th Jun: Total rainfall up to 75 mm Galle and Matara districts; up
to 55-65 mm in Kalutara and Hambantota districts; up to 45-55 mm in Colombo district;
and up to 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and
Ampara districts.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
7th jun: Not Available
8th Jun: Not Available
IRI Model Forecast:
From 5th – 10th Jun: Total rainfall up to 200 mm
is expected in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 150 mm in Gampaha, Colombo,
Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala,
Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 75 mm in Kandy district.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: May 20, 2019
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak
El Niño level during April and early May, while temperature anomalies of
subsurface waters decreased markedly to just slightly above average. Some
patterns in the atmosphere show weak El Niño conditions. Collective model
forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting
through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for
an approximate 70% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to
55-60% for Sep-Nov.
Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface
temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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