- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 13 – 18 Mar.
- Between 5 – 11 Mar: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ratnapura district on the 8th.
- From 5 – 11 Mar: up to 8 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On March 5th, Badulla district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 6th and 7th. On the 8th, Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Kegalle district and several regions of Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 10 mm. On the 9th, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Colombo, matara, Nuwara Eliya and western regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 10th and 11th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara Badulla, Galle and Matara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kalutara, Hambantota and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm is shown for rest of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced in Ratnapura district; up to 180 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara Monaragala and Badulla districts and in Northern regions of Anuradhapura district; and up to 60 mm in most parts of the island. Below average rainfall conditions up to 90 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts and some regions of Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and Monaragala, districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 300 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 150 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Matale, Kandy, Monaragala and Badulla districts; and up to 75 mm in Vavuniya and Kilinochchi districts.
Predictions14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 13th – 19th Mar: Total rainfall up to 45 mm Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in Badulla and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 15-25 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kandy districts.
From 20th – 26th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Gampaha, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 15th Mar: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Kegalle district; up to 20 mm in Ratnapura district.
16th Mar: No Rainfall.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 13th – 18th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in the entire island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 14, 2018
SSTs in the tropical Pacific increased from a borderline to a weak El Niño level in February and early March, while subsurface waters became more strongly warmer than average. Patterns in the atmosphere suggested El Niño more than was the case one month ago. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of weak El Niño-level SSTs through spring and summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during Mar-May, decreasing to 60% for Jun-Aug.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have an effect in the next 5 days; and shall suppress in the following 10 days.
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