- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara during 9 – 15 Jan.
- Between 2 - 8 Jan: no significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island.
- From 30 Dec – 5 Jan: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15 OC and western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 1-7 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period January 2nd -8th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 2 mm for the entire island. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 150 mm most parts of the island. Eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts experienced above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and south western coastal regions of Galle district up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in for the rest of the island.
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 9th – 15th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 55 – 65 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 45-55 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Trincomalee and Matara districts.
From 16th – 22nd Jan: No Rainfall.IMD WRF Model Forecast:
11th Jan: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Galle and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; and up to 10 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Kalutara districts.
12th Jan: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 40 mm in Ampara district; and up to 20 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing as a weak event through spring and even into summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance the rainfall in the following 10 days.