- The IRI weekly forecast predicts between 100-150 mm of rainfall in Galle and Kalutara districts during 16–21 May.
- Between 8-14 May: up to 140 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 12th.
- From 6-12 May: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the country recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 8-14 May: up to 18 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 8th, Galle district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Matara district up to 50 m; Hambantota district up to 40 mm; Kalutara, Ratnapora and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts up to 20 mm. On the 9th, Anuradhapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts up to 30 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 10th, Kurunegala district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura and Ampara districts up to 50 mm; Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Batticaloa, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 11th, Kurunegala district received up to 60 mm; Anuradhapura district up to 50 mm; Kegalla, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy and Polonnaruwa districts up to 30 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Colombo and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 12th, Galle and Matara districts received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 80 mm; Colombo, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 60 mm; Kegalla, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Gampaha, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; Puttalam, Vavuniya, Matale and Ampara districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 13th, Badulla district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Monaragala district up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm. On the 14th, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Kalutara, Kandy, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 150-200 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and Galle districts; up to 100-150 mm in Matale, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Matara, Kalutara, Gampaha and Puttalam districts; and 75-100 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 50-100 mm for most parts of the country.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - above average rainfall conditions were experienced by southwestern regions of the island; and rest of the country experienced below average rainfall. Vavuniya and Jaffna districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Kurunegala districts up to 90 mm. Galle and Matara districts received above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~500 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 300 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; up to ~200 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in Mannar, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 16th – 22nd May: Total rainfall between 115-105 mm in Galle district; between 105-95 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 95-85 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; between mm in districts; between 85-75 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; between 75-65 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts.
From 23rd – 29th May: Total rainfall between 125-115 mm in Galle and Matara districts; between 115-105 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; between 105-95 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Hambantota districts; between 95-85 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; between 85-75 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla and Hambantota districts; between 75-65 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: Not Available
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 16th – 21st May: Total rainfall between 100-150 mm in Galle and Kalutara districts; between 75-100 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 50-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Hambantota districts; between 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 10, 2018
In early May 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters warmed to ENSO-neutral levels. While most key atmospheric variables also indicated neutral conditions, the precipitation pattern and the upper level wind anomalies continued to show lingering weak La Niña conditions. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through the September-Novemeber season, with a nearly 50% chance of El Niño development by year’s end. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively call for weak El Niño development, but forecasters hedge due to low confidence at this time of year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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