Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 15, February 2018

Highlights:

•   The NCEP model predicts dry weather conditions for the entire island in the coming week.
•   Between 6-12 Feb: up to 80 mm of rainfall was recorded in Puttalam on the 6th.
•   From 4-10 Feb:   minimum temperature of 15 ^OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between  30-35 ^OC.
•   From 6-12 Feb: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
•   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On February 6th, Koswatta region of Puttalam district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kalutara districts up to 50 mm; Kegalla and Colombo districts up to 30 mm and Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. On the 7th, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kalutara, Ratnapura, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; Kegalla, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 8th, Kalutara district received up to 20 mm of rainfall and most parts of the southern half of the country up to 10 mm. On the 9th, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Colombo and Matara districts up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during 10-12. 

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 25-50 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Kegalla, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Matara and Colombo districts. It also shows above average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala and Galle districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ampara district; and up to 10-25 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla and Kalutara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January - below average rainfall conditions were experienced by the entire island. Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; and rest of the island up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Puttalam, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to ~75 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Matale, Kandy, Monaragala and Ampara districts. 

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 14th-20th Feb: No Rainfall.

From 21st-27th Feb: Up to 15 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Galle, Hambantota, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

17th Feb: Up to 8 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Ampara and Hambantota districts.

18th Feb: Up to 3 mm of rainfall in the Northern and Eastern regions of the country.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 14th-19th Feb: No Rainfall.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 9, 2017

In early February 2018, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and all key atmospheric variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Niña continuing through at least early spring, followed by a likely return to neutral conditions around mid-spring. Support for this scenario is provided by the latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall enhance in the following 5 days.