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Thursday, January 11, 2018

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 11, January 2018

Highlights:

  •   The WRF Model predicts up to 65 mm of rainfall in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Ampara districts on January 13th.
  •   Between 2-8 Jan: Rainfall up to 30 mm was recorded in Monaragala district on January 2nd and 3rd.
  •   From 31 Dec- 6 Jan:  minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while northern,  western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between  30-35 OC.
  •   From 2- 8 Jan: up to 36 km/h, northerly winds were experienced by the northern and central parts of the island and up to 18 km/h in the southern regions.
  •   0.OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the southern seas of Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring: On January 2nd, Buttala region in Monaragala district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and southern regions of Badulla district received up to 20 mm. On the 3rd Hambegamuwa in Monaragala district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Pallebedda in Ratnapura district up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during 4th- 7th Jan. On the 8th Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall.  


Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura and Mannar districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts. It also shows below average rainfall up to 100-200 mm in Ampara district; up to 50-100 mm in Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions were experienced by the entire island except for several regions of Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts. Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; and Gampaha, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy and Galle districts received up to 150 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~300 mm of total rainfall in Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to ~200 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Matale, Galle, Matara, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Ampara districts up to 100 mm.

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 10th – 16th Jan: Total rainfall between 35-54 mm in Monaragala district; between 25-35 mm in Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla an Ampara districts; between 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Matale, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; Up to 5 mm total rainfall rest of the island.

From 17th – 23rd Jan: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Monaragala, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; between 15-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee districts; between 5-15 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; Up to 5 mm total rainfall rest of the island.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 
12th Jan: Up to 35.6 mm of rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Ampara districts; Up to 7.6 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; Up to 2.5 mm in Kandy, Badulla, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Colombo districts.

13th Jan: Up to 64.5 mm of rainfall in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Ampara districts; Up to 35.6 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura,  Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; Up to 7.6 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam and Hambantota districts. Up to 2.5 mm of rainfall rest of the island.

IRI Weekly forecast:
10th – 15th Jan: Total rainfall between 50-75 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kandy and Kegalle districts; between 25-50 mm total rainfall rest of the island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 19, 2017
In mid-December 2017, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and all atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak, but not far from threshold of moderate, La Niña as the most likely scenario for the Northern Hemisphere winter, lasting into spring. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors continuation of La Niña through middle or late spring.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the southern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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