- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall between 85-95 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 22–28th Nov.
- Between 8-14 Nov: Rainfall up to 50 mm was recorded in Jaffna district on November 8th.
- From 5-11 Nov: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 7-13 Nov: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the northern and central regions of the island and up to 18 km/h in the southern and southeastern regions.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On November 8th Jaffna district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Mannar, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Galle and Matara districts up to 30 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm. On the 9th eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 10th, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Ampara and Monaragala district up to 20 mm. On the 11th Vavuniya district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Badulla districts up to 15 mm. On the 12th, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura and Gampaha districts up to 20 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 13th, Madawachchiya region in Anuradhapura district and Ahangama and Pitabeddara regions in Matara district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Jaffna district; up to 25-50 mm in Kilinochci, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala and Matara districts; up to 10-25 mm Vavuniya, Mannar, Batiicaloa, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale, Ampara, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Raatnapura and Galle districts; and 5-10 mm in rest of the island. It also shows below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matara and Hambantota districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During October - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the northern, western and southern regions of the island and above average rainfall in central and eastern regions. Puttalam and Galle districts received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 120 mm. Polonnaruwa district received up to 240 mm of above average rainfall; Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala and Matale districts up to 150 mm; and Kandy, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~360 mm of total rainfall in Polonnaruwa district; up to ~300 mm in Anuradhapura, and Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Matale districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 15th -21st Nov: Total rainfall between 55-65 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya and Kalutara districts; between 35-45 mm in Kandy, Kurunegala, Badulla and Galle districts; between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Ampara, Monaragala and Matara districts; between 15-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; Up to 5 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
From 22nd – 28th Nov: Total rainfall between 85-95 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; between 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Matale, Badulla and Monaragala districts; between 65-75 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; between 55-65 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts ; Up to 55 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
IMD WRF Model Forecast:
17th Nov: Up to 7.6 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; Up to 2.5 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Batticaloa districts.
18th Nov: Up to 2.5 mm of rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
15th – 20th Nov: Total rainfall between 25-50 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : November 9, 2017
In early November 2017, the tropical Pacific reflected weak La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific at the threshold for La Niña and most atmosphere variables showing patterns suggestive of weak La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak La Niña as the most likely scenario for the remainder of Northern Hemisphere fall and for the winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors continuation of La Niña through winter, and carries a La Niña advisory.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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