- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Badulla district during 2nd – 7th Oct.
- Between 25 Sep - 1 Oct: Rainfall up to 40 mm was recorded in Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts on the 27th.
- From 24 - 30 Sep: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while eastern coastal regions recorded a maximum temperature between 35-40 OC.
- From 25 Sep - 1 Oct: up to 36 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the southern and central parts of the country and up to 28 km/h in the northern regions.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On the 25th Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 26th Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Colombo and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm; and many parts of the island up to 10 mm. On September 27th, Colombo, Kalutara, and Ratnapura districts received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Kegalla and Gampaha districts up to 30 mm; and Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 28th several regions of Kurunegala and Puttalam districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 29th and 30th. On October 1st northern regions of Badulla district received up to 20 mm of rainfall.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Colombo district; up to 25-50 mm Gampaha, Kegalla, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura; and up to 10-25 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Ampar and Nuwara Eliya districts. It shows above average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in Colombo district. It also shows below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in many parts of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During September - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the eastern and southern regions of the island and above average rainfall in western and northern regions. Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, , Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall. Colombo district received up to 180 mm of above average rainfall; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kegalla and Kalutara districts up to 150 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~300 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to ~200 mm in Kegalla, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale. Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Kandy and Matara districts; and up to 50 mm in many parts of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 2nd Oct – 08th Oct: Total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Galle districts; and between 35-45 mm in Kurunegala district; between 25-35 mm in Puttalam and Matara districts.
From 09th – 15th Oct : Total rainfall between 65-75 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle districts; between 45-55 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Matara districts ; between 35-45 mm in Hambantota district; between 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya; between 15-25 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, and Ampara districts; and up to 15 mm rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast:
06th Oct: Up to 64.5 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 35.6 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 7.6 mm rainfall in Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy and Moneragala districts; and up to 2.5 mm rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
07th Sep: Up to 35.6 mm of rainfall in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 7.6 mm rainfall in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Kegalla and Hambantota districts; and up to 2.5 mm rainfall in Batticaloa, Ampara, Moneragala, Matale and Kandy districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
2nd – 7th Oct: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; Up to 50 mm total rainfall in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla, Ratanapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts and up to 25 mm for rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : September 19, 2017
In mid-September 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates coolish ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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