- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Western regions of the country on 28th and 29th of July.
- Between 18- 24 Jul: Rainfall up to 20 mm was recorded in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts on the 18th.
- From 16-22 Jul: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 18-24 Jul: up to 36 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the eastern seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On July 18th, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 10 mm. On the 19th Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara. Ratnapura and Kegalla districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 20th – 24th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 10-25 mm in western and southern adjacent seas of the island; and up to 5-10 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. It shows below average rainfall and up to and 10-25 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala and Trincomalee districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During June - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for northern regions of Monaragala and adjacent regions of Ampara district. Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 240 mm below average rainfall; and Colombo and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 150 mm; and most parts of the island up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to ~150 mm Badulla district; and up to ~100 mm Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Matale and Matara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 26th Jul – 1st Aug: Total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; between 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala; and between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy and Badulla districts.
From 2nd – 8th Aug: Total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Galle district; between 35-45 mm in Colombo, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and between 25-35 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
28th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 8 mm of rainfall in many parts of the island.
29th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 8 mm of rainfall in many parts of the island.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : July 19, 2017
In mid-July 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs near the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer through fall and into winter with chances for El Niño development at about 35-40%.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the eastern seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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