- The WRF model predicts rainfall all over the country. Up to 125 mm of rainfall expected in Anuradhapura, Kandy and Ratnapura districts on the 11th.
- Between 1-7 Mar: highest rainfall of 100 mm was recorded on the 3rd in Anuradhapura district.
- From 26 Feb- 4 Mar: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while many parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 28 Feb- 6 Mar: up to 18 km/h south easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and western seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On March 1st Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Ampara and Trincomalee districts up to 60 mm; Badulla and Monaragala up to 40 mm; Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; Vavuniya, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm; and adjacent southern sea up to 120 mm. On the 2nd Vettilakerni region of Jaffna district received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Batticaloa and Ampara districts up to 20 mm; and adjacent eastern sea up to 80 mm. On the 3rd Anuradhapura district and adjacent north eastern sea received up to 100 mm of rainfall; Jaffna, Matale, Kurunegala and Kandy district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi and Kegalla districts up to 50 mm; Kalutara and Badulla districts up to 40 mm; Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam, Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Ampara districts up to 30 mm; and Monaragala, Trincomalee and Vavuniya districts up to 20 mm. On the 4th Anuradhapura, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts up to 50 mm; Kilinochchi, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Ratnapura, Kandy and Matale districts up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded on the 5th. On the 6th Anuradhapura, Matale and Badulla districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 7th Matale and Kurunegala districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Puttalam and Ratnapura districts up to 70 mm; Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts up to 40 mm; Mullaitivu and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar district up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 100 mm for Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Nuwara Eliya Kegalla, Ratnapura, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala and Anuradhapura districts; up to 75 mm for Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Jaffna districts; up to 50 mm for Kandy district; up to 25 mm for Hambantota, Galle and Matara districts. It shows above average rainfall of 100-200 mm for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; 50-100 mm for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Kurunegala Kegalla, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala, and Ampara districts; and 25-50 mm for most parts of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During February - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Badulla, Hambantota and several regions of Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts. These regions received up to 90 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa district received below average rainfall up to 150 mm; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to ~75 mm in Kandy, Ratnapura, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to ~50 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Batticaloa districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 8th – 14th Mar: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in North, North Central, Central, East, Wayamba and Uwa provinces.
From 15th – 21st Mar: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Badulla districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
11th Mar: Rainfall up to 125 mm in Anuradhapura, Kandy and Ratnapura districts; up to 65 mm of rainfall in Kurunegala district; up to 35 mm of rainfall in Western, Wayamba, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, North Central and Uwa Provinces; and up to 8 mm rainfall all over the country.
12th Mar: Rainfall up to 65 mm rainfall in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; and up to 35 mm Central, Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern provinces and Vavuniya, Mullaitivu districts; and up to 8 mm rainfall all over the country.
Seasonal Prediction: February to April: tMarch to May: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the southern region and 60-70% likelihood in the northern region of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 16, 2017
During mid-February 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was close to 0.0C, in the ENSO-neutral range. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, one or two still show a weak La Niña pattern. In particular, the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall in the central and western tropical Pacific remains indicative of a weak La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through May 2017, with a chance for El Niño development later in the year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and western seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka for the upcoming 5 days and shall not have a significant impact on rainfall for the following 5 days. MJO shall suppress the rainfall for the next 5 days.
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