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Friday, January 13, 2017

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 11, January 2017


  •  The NCEP GFS model predicts no rainfall over Sri Lanka for next week.  
  •  Between 3-9 Jan: highest rainfall of 10 mm was recorded on the 3rd in Hambantota town.
  •  From 1-7 Jan: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while many parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
  •  From 1-7 Jan: up to 18 km/h north easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

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Weekly Monitoring: On January 3rd Hambantota town region received up to 10 mm of rainfall; several regions of Monaragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts up to 5 mm; and adjacent south eastern sea received up to 30 mm of rainfall. On the 4th Pelmadulla of Ratnapura district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No rainfalls were recorded within the island during the period 5th - 9th .

Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 2 mm for the entire island. It shows below average rainfall 100-200 mm for Batticaloa district; 50-100 mm for Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts and 25-50 mm for many parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – below average rainfall conditions were experienced by the entire island. Eastern regions of the island received up to 240 mm below average rainfall; and up to 150 mm in rest of the country. Monthly average rainfall for Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura amounted to 360 mm/month; and 180 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in the coastal regions of Colombo district; ~100 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Kandy, Matale, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and ~50 mm in rest of the island.


14-day prediction:
From 11th – 17th Jan: No rainfall.
From 17th – 23rd Jan: Total rainfall between 85-95 mm in Ampara district; 75-85 mm in Badulla and Monaragala districts; 65-75 mm in Polonnaruwa district; 55-65 mm Trincomalee, Matale and Kandy districts; 45-55 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Kegalla and Hambantota districts; and 35-45 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
 12th Jan: No rainfall.
 13th Jan: No rainfall.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for January to March 2017, the total 3-month precipitation has 40-50% likelihood of being in the above-normal tercile for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 15, 2016
During mid-December 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Also, most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific have been consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although sub-seasonal atmospheric variability weakened some of them in late November. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have been suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall have also been consistent with weak La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs near the threshold of La Niña persisting through mid-winter, then weakening to cool-neutral by later winter.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the southern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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