Thursday, July 17, 2014
Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 17 July, 2014
Monitoring and Prediction
Lesser rainfall is observed in the entire country and a decreasing rainfall trend was observed during last two weeks. However intense wind was observed in the country during the past week. Neutral sea surface temperature anomaly persists around Sri Lanka.
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Weekly Monitoring:: Only slight amount of rainfall was observed throughout the country during 8th – 14th of July. Highest rainfall of 30 mm was observed on the 9th in Kegalle and Galle disricts.
Monthly Monitoring:The southwest monsoon was active during the month of June. Due to this the south western region received higher rainfall than rest of the country. The entire southern half of the island received rainfall during this month but except for Colombo, Kaluthara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, western areas of Nuwara-Eliya and southern areas of Gampaha districts, rainfall received in the country was below-average. In the above mentioned districts up to 200 mm of excess rainfall, compared to the average rainfall received in the past during June, was observed.
14-day prediction:Rainfall is expected in South Western region of the country which shall be up to 35 mm.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: IMD WRF model forecasts are not available this week. IRI models predict up to 50 mm of rainfall in the entire country except in North Western region during 15th- 20th July. Rainfall may go up to 100 mm in some parts along the South Western coast and adjacent sea. No unusually high rainfall events are predicted for this time period.
Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on June 2014; for July 2014 to September 2014, the precipitation shall be climatological while there is a 70% chance that temperature shall be above normal.
PACIFIC SEAS STATE June 19, 2014 :During May through mid-June the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :A neutral sea surface temperature anomaly was observed around Sri Lanka
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 6 in the Western Pacific and this shall lead to suppressed rainfall conditions in Sri Lanka