Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 20 February, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
The existing dry condition shall decrease after 23rd of February and western slopes and, coastal shall receive significant rainfall events during the end of February. However, during coming two days (21st and 22nd February 2014) patches of Ratnapura district shall receive significant rainfall.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During the week entire country experienced dry condition throughout, except on 16th February, parts of Nuwara Eliya received insignificant amount of rainfall (less than 2 mm).


Monthly Monitoring:Ampara, Matale and Ratnapura districts received rainfall during the month of January 2014 within the range 1 to 4 mm/day.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During 14th to 25th February 2014, rainfall shall spread towards South-west direction in an increasing manner. However, entire country shall receive less than 105 mm of rainfall during the mentioned week. During 26th February to 04th March 2014, entire country shall receive rainfall of less than 55 mm of rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: For 21st of February, IMD WRF model predicts significant rainfall for the small patches in Galle and Ratnapura districts. For 22nd February, patches of Ratnapura district shall receive significant rainfall. However, during these two days Northern half of the island is likely to be dry. During 19th to 24th February, Colombo, Ratnapura, Moneragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts shall receive wet condition than the other areas of Sri Lanka.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Existing dry condition shall decrease and rainfall shall observe. However, rainfall shall remain less than 6mm/day till the end of February. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall increase gradually till the end of February. Significant amount of rainfall is likely to observe during end of February and the beginning of March. Western Coast- Rainfall shall increase gradually till 23rd of February, which is likely to be significant rainfall event. Threafter rainfall shall decrease. Eastern Slopes- Rainfall shall vary in between 1-6 mm/day till the end of February. No significant rainfall events are expected. Eastern Coast- No significant rainfall events are expected. However, exsting dry condition shall decrease. Northern- Rainfall shall vary below 4 mm/day till the end of February. Southern Region- Rainfall shall increase gradually till the end of month.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on January 2014; for February 2014 to April 2014, there is a 50-60% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE February 6, 2013 :During December through early January the observed ENSO conditions have remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO into northern spring 2014. During late spring and summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and statistical models

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Northern sea of Sri Lanka showed -10C anomaly cold sea surface temperature around western side of Sri Lanka and for normal seas surface temperature observed rest of the seas around Sri Lanka during 2nd-8th February 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is neutral.