Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 10 October, 2013

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Heavy rainfall is likely to observe for Matara to Jaffna during coming two days (11th & 12th October). South-western regions shall receive more rainfall during 9th-15th October 2013. For the entire country, rainfall shall increase gradually after 11th of October.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 1st-7th October 2013, rainfall ranged less than 5 mm/day. Entire week was dry.


Monthly Monitoring:Jaffna and Batticaloa districts received an above average rainfall during the month of September.

Predictions

7-day prediction:South-western regions shall receive 15-75 mm of rainfall during 9th-15th October 2013.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:For 11th of October, IMD WRF model predicts less than 36 mm of rainfall for Matara-Jaffna coastal districts and shall spread towards central axis of Sri Lanka. For 12th of October, model predicts more amount of rainfall (65 mm) for the same regions covered by previous day. However, NOAA model prediction is suspended this week due to the U.S. Government shutdown.

1 Month Prediction:Overall- Rainfall is not predicted during 8th-12th October. Thereafter rainfall shall increase gradually. Western Slopes – The rainfall pattern persisting in the entire country shall be observed in this region. Western Coast – Rainfall is not predicted till 15th of October 2013. Thereafter rainfall shall increase gradually. Eastern Slopes– Rainfall shall increase gradually after 11th of October 2013. Eastern Coast – Rainfall shall vary below 4 mm/day till the end of October 2013. Northern region- The rainfall is not predicted during 10th-16th and shall increase gradually thereafter. Southern Region- The rainfall shall increase gradually starting from 11th October.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on September 2013; for October 2013 to December 2013, there is a 60-70% probability for temperature to be above normal in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE July 18, 2013 :During August through early September the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO through 2013 & the first quarter of 2014. However, a few (mainly statistical) models call for cooling towards borderline or weak La-Nina conditions for northern autumn into winter, while a few others (mainly dynamical) forecast a warming toward borderline or weak El-Nino conditions for this same time frame.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :The sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was neutral during 29th September-5th October 2013.
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 6 and shall not influence Sri Lanka rainfall.