Weekly Monitoring: During the last week (12th- 17th September) rainfall ranged between 0 mm- 30 mm. Maximum rainfall of 30 mm observed on 14th & 15th for sactterd places of Southern, Western & Southwestern regions of Sri Lanka. Southern half of the island received heavy rainfall on 15th & 16th. Scattered rainfall observed during 15th- 17th for Jaffna peninsula & North-Eastern regions of the country.
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7-day prediction: During this week, an accumulated rainfall of 25 mm – 95 mm is predicted for the South, Western and Southwestern regions of the island.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: On the 20th IMD WRF model predicts less than 65 mm rainfall for Colombo, 2.5-36 mm rainfall for South-Western regions, 2.5- 8 mm rainfall for the South coast and 2.5- 36 mm rainfall for the West. Rainfall shall have the same pattern on the following day (21st) with increased (35- 65 mm) rainfall for South-Western regions of the country. NOAA models forecast Predicts 20- 50 mm rainfall for Northern, North-Central and North Eastern parts of the country. Rst of the parts shall receive less than 20 mm of rainfall.
1 Month Prediction: Overall- During 22nd-24th rainfall shall show slight increase & shall decrease with same rate. For 24th-26th rainfall is not predicted. Thereon it shall increase gradually but it shall show falls during 28th-29th September, 5th-7th & 13th-18th October. Western Slopes- Rainfall shall increase with different rates during 22nd-28th. Until 13th of October, rainfall shall remain around 5 mm with some fluctuations. Rainfall shall further decrease till 15th & shall increase thereafter. Eastern slopes- Until 1st of October, rainfall is only expected on 22nd- 25th. Rainfall shall increase during 30th September-3rd October & it shall decrease till 7th October with same rate. Thereafter it shall increase till 13th & shall gradually decrease thereon. Northern- During 22nd-24th rainfall shall show slight increase & shall decrease with same rate. Rainfall is not predicted for the period of 29th September-1st October. Thereon it shall increase with minor fluctuations till 13th October. Thereafter rainfall shall decrease gradually.