Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 26 April 2012

April 26, 2012 Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report for Mahaweli Authority . This is an experimental climate monitoring and prediction advisory made for expert users.

Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: During last week (18^th -23^rd April) rainfall ranged between 0-140mm. Most Parts of the country received rainfall throughout the week. On the 20^th and 21^st , South Western parts received rainfall up to a maximum of 50mm. Almost whole island experienced the wet conditions during 22^nd -23^rd April. Particularly Northern, North Central and North Western regions received more rainfall and highest amount recorded from the Trincomalee district.

Monthly Monitoring: During March most Parts of the island have shown a below average rainfall while above average in the some parts of the Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Moneragala, Mullativu, Kilinochchi, Vauniya and Batticaloa districts.

Predictions

7 Day Prediction: For the coming week, the NCEP Global Forecast System predicts an accumulated rainfall of 5mm– 115 mm particularly throughout the  island while South Western tip getting an accumulation up to 115mm.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: WRF Model Predicts 1mm-36mm rainfall except for the South Eastern and some parts of the North Central and Central regions on the 26^th. But it predicts dry conditions in the most parts of the country on the 28^th while predicting 1mm-65mm rainfall for the Northern, North western and South Western regions and lower parts of the western region. NOAA NCEP CFS model (delivered via IRI map tool) predicts 50mm of total rainfall for the entirety of the island during 24^th– 29^th of April.

1 Month Prediction:  Overall, a rapid increase of rainfall shall be expected till the 28^th April followed by a gradual decrease till the 05^th of May. Thereafter it shall show quite steady conditions till the 11^th of May. After 12^th May it shall again increase dramatically till the 24^th of May and hence wet conditons shall be experienced after the 16^th of May.  Western Slopes- Nearly the same pattern shall be expected with an increased rainfall. A rapid  increase of rainfall shall be expected till the 28^th of April followed by a decreasing trend with flucuations till the 11^th of May. Thereafter it shall increase dramatically till the 24^th of May. Overall, the western slopes shall experience wet conditions during the coming moth of period. Eastern Slopes- A significant amount of rainfall is not predicted till the 19^th of May followed by a rapid increase till the 24^th of May and wet conditions shall be expected after the 15^th of May. Northern Region- A rapid increase of rainfall shall be observed till the 28^th of April followed by a rapid decrase till the 03^rd of March. Thereafter It shall increase gradually till the 24^th of May.

Seasonal Prediction: As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for May 2012 to July 2012, issued in April 2012, there is a 40%-45% probability for temperature to be below normal particularly in the northern half of the country while 40% probability for it is to be normal in the southern half. There is 40% probability for rainfall to be climatological.3




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