Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • From 1st - 6th  April, Moderate rainfall (up to 35 mm) is expected  for the Sabaragamuwa, Western & Southern provinces while less is expected other provinces

 • During the last week the Average Daily Rainfall in Sri Lanka was 2.3 mm, with max of 109 mm in Kalutara on 29th March.

 • From 22nd - 28th March, up to 3m/s Southerlies to South-easterlies  were experienced.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean. 

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 1^st – 6^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 25 mm - Central, North Western, Eastern, North Central, Uva
• 15 mm - Northern 

From 7^th – 13^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern
• 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Central
• 15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral during 1^st – 4^thApril; slightly enhance the rainfall during 5^th - 9^th April; and moderately enhance during 10^th – 14^th April.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 23, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 

Morapitiya (Kalutara)

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (22^nd-29^th March) = 2.3 mm

Rmax: 24.4mm & Rmin: 0mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	2.2 mm
Eastern	1.1 mm
Western	3.1 mm
Southern Plains	0.04 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas were recorded 2.7 mm of average rainfall for the last week Rmax: 11.6 mm & Rmin: 0 mm.

Wind:

Southerly to South-easterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (1^st – 6^th April) moderate rainfall is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and provinces during 1^st – 9^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall neutral during 1^st – 4^thApril; slightly enhance the rainfall during 5^th - 9^th April; and moderately enhance during 10^th – 14^th April.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 March 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 75 mm of fairly heavy rainfall is expected for the Central province from 23rd - 29th March while other provinces are expected to receive less.

 • 3.6 mm average daily rainfall was experienced for the last week in the met stations, with max of 111 mm in Kegalle on 17 March.

 • From 14th - 20th March, up to 3 -6m/s Southwesterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd – 29^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Central
• 45 mm - North Western
• 25 mm - North Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern
• 15 mm - Uva

From 30^th March – 5^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Central
• 55 mm - North Western, Eastern
• 35 mm - North Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral during 23^rd – 27^th March; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 28^th March - 6^th April.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 16, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: Sabaragamuwa.

Meteorology stations were recorded 3.6 mm of average daily rainfall and the Rmax: 47.2mm & Rmin: 0mm for entire island for the last week.

Region	Meteorology stations	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	Jaffna, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Maha Illuppallama, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu	0.07 mm
Eastern	Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Potuvil, Badulla, Bandarawela, Moneragala, Polonnaruwa	5.79 mm
Western	Nuawara Eliya, Kurunegala, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Katugastota, Katunayake, Ratmalana	4.31 mm
Southern Plains	Hambantota, Mattala	6.35 mm

The mean of annual rainfall = 23.49 mm

Recorded average rainfall for the week of 14^th – 21^st March = 3.60 mm

Meanwhile the Hydro Catchment Areas were recorded 6.52mm of average rainfall for the last week range Rmax: 79.7mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

Southwesterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Northern half and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (23^rd – 29^th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern province during 25^th March – 2^nd April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall neutral during 23^rd – 27^th March; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 28^th March - 6^th April.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 March 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 75 mm of fairly heavy rainfall is expected to receive for the Central province from 18th - 23rd March while other provinces are expected to receive less.

 • Western & Southern provinces have received heavy rainfall in the last two weeks, with a max of 126.5 mm in the Gampaha area on 12 Mar, and the majority of the island has received less.

 • From 8th - 14th March, up to 6m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Central
• 45 mm - North Western
• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern, Uva
• 25 mm - North Central

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Central
• 55 mm - North Western, North Central, Eastern
• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Southern
• 15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17^th – 21^st March; and slightly enhance during 22^nd – 31^st March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 9, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western and Southern.

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Norther province and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (18^th – 23^rd March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces during 19^th – 27^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall from 17^th – 21^st March; and slightly enhance during 22^nd – 31^st March.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 March 2022)

  

Highlights          

                   

 • The Central province is expected to receive up to 85 mm of fairly heavy rainfall from 9th - 15th Mar, while the North Western, North Central, and Eastern provinces are expected to receive up to 55mm.

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern, Uva, Southern, Central &  Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 72.5 mm in Inginiyagala on 2nd Mar.

 • From 28th Feb - 6th Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th – 15^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Central
• 55 mm - North Central, Eastern, North Western
• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Southern, Eastern, Uva

From 16^th – 22^nd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Central
• 85 mm - North Western
• 65 mm - North Central, Eastern, Uva
• 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Western, Southern
• 35 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 9^th – 23^rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9^th – 18^th March; and neutral during 19^th – 23^th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 2, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-March. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following province: Eastern, Uva, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Central.

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the North Central and North Western provinces and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (9^th – 15^th March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, North Western, North Central and Eastern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Western province during 11^th – 19^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 9^th – 23^rd March, giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 9^th – 18^th March; and neutral during 19^th – 23^th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.