Highlights
• Eastern
Province has no rain predicted and for other provinces the rain predicted
is below 15 mm
from 20 - 26 March. Dry weather conditions are predicted for next week.
• On average, 1/6 of the expected rainfall was
received over the country during 19 Feb - 19 Mar. Rainfall on 8 March was highest (115 mm) at
Keragala (SP).
• Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly
from 11 - 17 March reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted
easterly from 21 - 27 March reaching up to 3 m/s.
• Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala
(38.5ºC) & Ratnapura (37.5ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP models:
From 20th March - 26th March: Total rainfall by Provinces
- 25 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
- ≤ 15 mm - Central, Uva, Northern, North Central, North Western, Eastern
From 27th March - 2nd April:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 15 mm - North Western, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North Central, Western
- ≤ 5 mm - Eastern, Northern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 19, 2024
The SST Anomalies for the
NINO3.4 region shows a +1.5 ºC on the week ending 19th March - thus a moderate-strong
El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño
event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was 0.5℃ above normal to the country in 27th February - 4th
March 2024. Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Keragala.
Daily
Average Rainfall in the Met stations for
previous week of (13th March - 20th March) = 0.4 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 31.6 mm & Minimum
Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Average temperature for last 8 days
(ºC)
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
Northern plains
|
0.0
|
34.4
|
23.8
|
Eastern hills
|
0.0
|
28.8
|
17.2
|
Eastern plains
|
0.3
|
33.7
|
23.6
|
Western hills
|
0.0
|
31.6
|
18.4
|
Western plains
|
0.8
|
34.1
|
25.7
|
Southern plains
|
2.0
|
34.0
|
24.7
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
Hydro catchment
|
0.8
|
51.5
|
0.0
|
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The
temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Central,
Western, and North Western provinces of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (20th
March - 26th March), light showers (≤ 25mm) are predicted for the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will
remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Northern, North
Central, Southern, Western, and Uva provinces during 21st March - 27th
March.
Teleconnections:
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 20th - 24th
March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 25th - 29th
March, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 30th March - 3rd
April for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the April-May-June, 2024 season shows a 40 - 50%
tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.