Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 12 March 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 9 - 14 Mar.
• Between 4 - 9 Mar: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Ratnapura district on the 9^th.
• From 3 - 9 Mar: up to 10 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
4th March	No Rainfall.
5th  March	Up to 30 mm Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara district.
6th March	Up to 20 mm Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island.
7th March	Up to 10 mm Puttalam,Mannar, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.
8th March	No Rainfall.
9th March	Up to 50 mm Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, and Puttalam districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle and Kalutara districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 11^th – 17^th Mar: Up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island.
From 18^th – 24^th Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4^th – 9^th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.