Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 6 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 5 - 10 Feb.

·         Between 29 Jan - 3 Feb: up to 5 mm of rainfall was recorded in southern regions of the island on the 3^rd.

·         From 28 Jan - 3 Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·         1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
29th January	No Rainfall.
30th   January	No Rainfall.
31st January	No Rainfall.
1st February	No Rainfall.
2nd February	No Rainfall.
3rd February	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 2-5 mm in Hambantota district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in the rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of the Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below-average rainfall conditions, up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 5^th – 11^th Feb: No Rainfall.

From 12^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 5^th – 10^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.