Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 27 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

·         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 26 Feb - 2 Mar.

·         Between 19 - 25 Feb: up to 140 mm of rainfall was recorded in Mannar district on the 22^nd.

·         From 18 - 24 Feb: up to 36 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island

·         0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th February	No Rainfall.
20th   February	Up to 70 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Trincomalee and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in Kandy district.
21st February	Up to 50 mm Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Kandy, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa districts.
22nd February	Up to 140 mm in Mannar district; and up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
23rd February	Up to 10 mm in Monaragala district.
24th February	No Rainfall.
25th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Badulla and Anuradhapura districts; up to 25-0 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Monaragala Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Mannar district; and up to 25-50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Kurunegala district; and up to 10-25 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 26^th Feb - 3^rd Mar: No Rainfall.
From 4^th – 10^th Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 19^th – 24^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall enhance in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 18, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.