Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 13 February 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in the southern half of the island during 12 - 18 Feb.

•  Between 4 - 10 Feb: up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in Galle and Matara districts on the 5^th.

•  From 4 - 10Feb: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
4th February	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
5th   February	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts and up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Kegalle, Monaragala and Hambantota districts .
6th February	No Rainfall.
7th February	No Rainfall.
8th February	No Rainfall.
9th February	No Rainfall.
10th February	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Hambantota, Ampara and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During January – Above average rainfall conditions up to 120 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and southern regions of Kegalle and northern regions of Ratnapura districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm were experienced by Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, and Kegalle districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 12^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
From 19^th – 25^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Colombo, Matale and Anuradhapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 13^th – 18^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.