Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 30 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 29 Jan - 3 Feb.

•          Between 21 - 27 Jan: up to 160 mm of rainfall was recorded in Matale district on the 21^st

•          From 21- 27 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•          0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
21st January	Up to 160 mm in Matale district; up to 120 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 20 mm in Badulla and Hambantota districts.
22nd  January	Up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara and Hambantota districts.
23rd January	Up to 10 mm in Badulla, Matale and Kandy districts.
24th January	No Rainfall.
25th January	No Rainfall.
26th January	No Rainfall.
27th January	No Rainfall.
28th January	Up to 10 mm in Puttalam district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, and Mannar districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 29^th Jan – 4^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo Gampaha, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
From 5^th – 11^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 29^th Jan 3^rd Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an Impact in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.