Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 01, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 3 – 8 Jul.

·  Between 24 Jun – 1 Jul: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts on the 24^th.

·  From 26 Jun – 2 Jul: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·  1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On June 24^th, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts. On the 25^th, Jaffna, Kilinonochchi, and Mullaitivu districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  On the 26^th, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 27^th - 29^th. On the 30^th, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On July 1^st, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Gampaha and Kurunegala districts; and 5-10 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts..

Monthly Monitoring: During May – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala, Matale and Kandy districts

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3^rd - 9^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.

From 10^th - 16^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 15-25 mm Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

5^th Jul: Not Available

6^th Jul: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 3^rd – 8^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 19, 2019

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through fall and winter.

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.